War doesn't unfold when everyone is fat and happy.
- Martin Armstrong
This quote grabbed my attention not because it is true, but because of how real it feels. We live in the world of many problems and few solutions. Chief among them is the exploding population and the real lack of food to feed everyone. Armstrong's assessment summarizes the current situation perfectly. Revolutions, civil wars, tribal and religious conflicts happening right now are a direct consequence of too many people vying for too few resources.
My understanding of reasons behind recent Arab Spring revolutions and other conflicts has always been on par with Armstrong's assessment. Now that I am witnessing the beginnings of a civil war in my native country of Ukraine, I am beginning to see then evidence to support Armstrong's claim. The revolution in Ukraine was a result of people lacking the ability to purchase the basic produce to keep themselves fed. The catalyst for this revolution was an apparent backpaddling of Yanukovych on the EU deal, but it was just a catalyst. The revolution would have happened soon or later ignited by any of the issues troubling Ukraine right now.
Similar assessment can be made about Egyptian revolution, Libyan civil war, or Syrian conflict. Indeed, if you want to predict where the next point of unrest will occur, just ask two questions: Who's hungry? And how many?
Given that Brazil is currently experiencing periods of unrest and the flame of discontent in that country is being flared by worsening environmental impacts of drought, I would point to that country as being ripe to become the next big civil/revolutionary unrest hot zone. Italy, Spain, and Greece are still a distance away from becoming similar hot zones, but the pot is brewing.
Russia with it's all powerful czar Putin is fully cognizant of the dire situation their country is in. Who's hungry is a question that doesn't need to be asked in Russia anymore. The obvious answer, everyone is hungry, is also an answer to the how many question. The czar is aware that his home soil is ripe for a revolution, ripe for a period of turmoil that will make the already bad economic situation worse and weaken further Russia's influence upon the world affairs.
Putin is being proactive. How do you feed your hungry citizens? Easy, find someone weaker, take their stuff and pass it on to your people. Ukraine will fight till the end, I believe and hope. It could break Putin or it could make him. If Ukraine fails, fear the bear is my warning to everyone else.
Who's hungry in the United States? The poor. How many? Millions and growing quickly by the day. Is the United States on the brink of a revolution or civil unrest? It has already started and it's gaining steam, at least that's what Martin Armstrong is estimating.
The ultimate question surfaces, can we feed everyone? Theoretically, yes. Practically, hell no. There are way to many people and way too little land, energy or the cooperation from Mother Nature. And of course we would still need to get everyone to agree to share equally. And that's communism. I don't it'll work. The future may be very bleak indeed. Let's hope it brightens up a lot.